University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 27 Investigating the formation of a coin price bubble using rand numbers: a behavioral economics approach Investigating the formation of a coin price bubble using rand numbers: a behavioral economics approach 1 19 8440 10.22111/sedj.2024.48218.1454 FA Ali Mahmodi Ph.d student in Economics, Department of Economics, Administrative Sciences and Economics University f Isfahan Saeed Samadi Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran Leila Torki Associate Professor, Department of Economics. Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics. University of Isfahan Isfahan. Iran Saeed Fathi Associate Professor, Department of Management. Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics. University of Isfahan Isfahan. Iran Journal Article 2024 03 13 In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of psychological factors on the fluctuations of coin prices in the market. Psychological factors belong to a category of factors that have given rise to the subfield of behavioral economics. On the other hand, price fluctuations near certain numbers, are an example of market inefiiciency, which contradicts the foundation of classical economic theories. The period under study in this research ranges from 1392 to 1400, including a period of price stability (1392-1396) and a priodof high fluctuations due to international sanctions(1396-1400). The price range during this period has been from 800000 Tomans to 16000000 Tomans. The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) approach is used to estimate the corresponding equation. Here, a 10-day period is considered, and four time intervals around the barriers are examined. To further investigate the hypotheses and the distribution of prices around random numbers, the Nikooyi fitting method is used. The research results confirm the existence of price clustering phenomenon for coins during the period of 1396-1400. The results indicate that the dispersion of numbers in prices is not uniform, and prices show reactions to random numbers. On the other hand, the existence of this psychological phenomenon leads to the creation of a coin bubble or the deviation of coin prices from the equivalent price of 10 grams of gold, which is considered as the real and intrinsic value of the coin. In bullish market conditions, the coin bubble is more significant, but in bearish and stable market conditions, this bubble decreases." In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of psychological factors on the fluctuations of coin prices in the market. Psychological factors belong to a category of factors that have given rise to the subfield of behavioral economics. On the other hand, price fluctuations near certain numbers, are an example of market inefiiciency, which contradicts the foundation of classical economic theories. The period under study in this research ranges from 1392 to 1400, including a period of price stability (1392-1396) and a priodof high fluctuations due to international sanctions(1396-1400). The price range during this period has been from 800000 Tomans to 16000000 Tomans. The GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) approach is used to estimate the corresponding equation. Here, a 10-day period is considered, and four time intervals around the barriers are examined. To further investigate the hypotheses and the distribution of prices around random numbers, the Nikooyi fitting method is used. The research results confirm the existence of price clustering phenomenon for coins during the period of 1396-1400. The results indicate that the dispersion of numbers in prices is not uniform, and prices show reactions to random numbers. On the other hand, the existence of this psychological phenomenon leads to the creation of a coin bubble or the deviation of coin prices from the equivalent price of 10 grams of gold, which is considered as the real and intrinsic value of the coin. In bullish market conditions, the coin bubble is more significant, but in bearish and stable market conditions, this bubble decreases."

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8440_971345a824f7543c6793f8cd626471d7.pdf

University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 21 Exploring the Impact of Shocks on Welfare Loss in Fractional and Full Reserve Banking: DSGE approach Exploring the Impact of Shocks on Welfare Loss in Fractional and Full Reserve Banking: DSGE approach 21 53 8438 10.22111/sedj.2024.47990.1448 FA Farideh Khodadadi Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University,Tehran,Iran Hoesein Samsami 2. Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran,Iran. Journal Article 2024 02 15 The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of shocks on welfare loss under fractional and full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, we designed a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the new Keynesians, considering the fractional and full reserve banking system (FRB) and the realities of the Iranian economy. We then examined the effects of impulses under two scenarios. After determining the model input values and estimating the parameters using quarterly data from Iran’s economy during the period of 1991-2021 via the Bayesian estimation method, the results of the model variables simulation validate the model’s ability to describe the fluctuations in Iran’s economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that the final result of shocks in fractional reserve banking on most of the real and financial sector variables is longer and larger than in full reserve banking. Also, the comparison of the response functions of the selected variables in the two models shows that banking has caused the share of shocks in creating the fluctuations of key variables to change, and even the position of some of them with oil shocks and money changes. Regarding the welfare loss of shocks in two basic and optimal models, the results showed that the lowest welfare loss is related to the optimal model (full reserve). The lowest welfare loss in the basic model (0.01479200) and the optimal model (0.00001306) corresponds to the case where the coefficient of the production gap in the loss function is equal to 0.5. That is, if the inflation priority is applied to the loss function, the numerical value of the welfare loss is significantly smaller than the other investigated cases. This confirms that in both models, the priority of inflation is more effective than the priority of production in the CB loss function in terms of welfare. This means that the Central Bank of Iran should pay more attention to inflation between inflation and production fluctuations because the full reserve of deposits has a greater impact on inflation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of shocks on welfare loss under fractional and full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, we designed a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the new Keynesians, considering the fractional and full reserve banking system (FRB) and the realities of the Iranian economy. We then examined the effects of impulses under two scenarios. After determining the model input values and estimating the parameters using quarterly data from Iran’s economy during the period of 1991-2021 via the Bayesian estimation method, the results of the model variables simulation validate the model’s ability to describe the fluctuations in Iran’s economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that the final result of shocks in fractional reserve banking on most of the real and financial sector variables is longer and larger than in full reserve banking. Also, the comparison of the response functions of the selected variables in the two models shows that banking has caused the share of shocks in creating the fluctuations of key variables to change, and even the position of some of them with oil shocks and money changes. Regarding the welfare loss of shocks in two basic and optimal models, the results showed that the lowest welfare loss is related to the optimal model (full reserve). The lowest welfare loss in the basic model (0.01479200) and the optimal model (0.00001306) corresponds to the case where the coefficient of the production gap in the loss function is equal to 0.5. That is, if the inflation priority is applied to the loss function, the numerical value of the welfare loss is significantly smaller than the other investigated cases. This confirms that in both models, the priority of inflation is more effective than the priority of production in the CB loss function in terms of welfare. This means that the Central Bank of Iran should pay more attention to inflation between inflation and production fluctuations because the full reserve of deposits has a greater impact on inflation.

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8438_5c8f4ab04d074dc56127b13d43b6595e.pdf

University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 21 Investigating the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran: with the GVAR approach Investigating the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran: with the GVAR approach 55 92 8276 10.22111/sedj.2024.47179.1411 FA Mehdi Shirafkan Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Chabahar University of Maritime and Marine Sciences, Chabahar, Iran Fateme Seyedhashemi Ph.D. Economic, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Tabriz, Tabriz Yaser Sistani Badoei ecturer Academic Member of Economy , Baft Higher Education Center , Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman , Kerman , Iran Journal Article 2023 11 12 In recent years, housing prices have enjoyed a significant growth in some periods, therefore, the extreme fluctuations in housing prices and their economic and social effects have caused extensive losses to households and the performance of other economic sectors and caused disruptions. It has been in the provision of consumer housing. Therefore, housing market shocks are of particular importance. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran during the years 2018-2019 using the Jever method. So that the results show that based on the reaction graphs of the housing index to housing index shocks and transaction volume, the housing price index of all provinces except seven provinces have reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. Based on the graphs of the reaction of transaction volume to the shocks of transaction volume and housing price index, the housing transaction volume index of all provinces, except for eleven provinces, reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. According to the variance analysis charts of the housing price index, most of the changes in the housing price index of thirteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing price index in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index. According to the variance analysis diagrams of housing transaction volume, most of the changes in the housing transaction volume index of fourteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing transaction volume in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index. In recent years, housing prices have enjoyed a significant growth in some periods, therefore, the extreme fluctuations in housing prices and their economic and social effects have caused extensive losses to households and the performance of other economic sectors and caused disruptions. It has been in the provision of consumer housing. Therefore, housing market shocks are of particular importance. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of mutual shocks of the housing price index and the volume of housing transactions in the provinces of Iran during the years 2018-2019 using the Jever method. So that the results show that based on the reaction graphs of the housing index to housing index shocks and transaction volume, the housing price index of all provinces except seven provinces have reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. Based on the graphs of the reaction of transaction volume to the shocks of transaction volume and housing price index, the housing transaction volume index of all provinces, except for eleven provinces, reacted more to the shocks of Tehran's housing price index than to the shocks of Tehran's housing transaction volume. According to the variance analysis charts of the housing price index, most of the changes in the housing price index of thirteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing price index in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index. According to the variance analysis diagrams of housing transaction volume, most of the changes in the housing transaction volume index of fourteen provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing transaction volume index, and most of the changes in the housing transaction volume in other provinces are caused by the changes in the Tehran housing price index.

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8276_ca0a349a265de5cb6e6da0580790b6a5.pdf

University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 27 The determinants of Iranian female migration with an emphasis on the miserable index and control of corruption The determinants of Iranian female migration with an emphasis on the miserable index and control of corruption 93 121 8439 10.22111/sedj.2024.48200.1453 FA Zahra Mila Elmi Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran Fatemeh Pasandi Yasaghi M.A. student, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran Journal Article 2024 03 11 One of the most important developments in international immigration is the increase in the number and share of women in the migration process. Due to the phenomenon of feminization of migration and the lack of studies on the migration of Iranian women to the destination countries of migration, we decided to study the most important factors affecting this phenomenon in Iran. Therefore, in this research, using the data on Iranian women's migration to developed countries and the two-stage panel generalized moments method (PGMM), the factors affecting the international migration of Iranian women were investigated from 2011 to 2021. Based on the estimation results, the misery index has a positive effect, and control of corruption has a negative and significant effect on women's migration. In addition, the increase in women's participation rates can be a deterrent for women’s international migration. Considering the low rate of women’s participation, which is one of the lowest rates in the Middle East region, and which is a sign of structural problems in the labor market, it is a warning for macroeconomic policymakers that due to the increasing literacy level of women and their self-confidence, and in order to preserve this human capital, examining the situation of the women's labor market and solving its challenges should be prioritized. The ratio of the economic growth of the destination countries of women's migration to the economic growth of Iran, as well as the ratio of the per capita income of the destination countries to Iran, has a positive and significant effect on the migration of Iranian women. These ratios show the welfare difference between the destination countries and Iran, which acts as an attractor not only for women's migration but also for men's migration. Therefore, it is expected that with the appropriate policies in the economy and society and the improvement of economic and welfare conditions, we will not witness the departure of human resources and the wastage of human capital. One of the most important developments in international immigration is the increase in the number and share of women in the migration process. Due to the phenomenon of feminization of migration and the lack of studies on the migration of Iranian women to the destination countries of migration, we decided to study the most important factors affecting this phenomenon in Iran. Therefore, in this research, using the data on Iranian women's migration to developed countries and the two-stage panel generalized moments method (PGMM), the factors affecting the international migration of Iranian women were investigated from 2011 to 2021. Based on the estimation results, the misery index has a positive effect, and control of corruption has a negative and significant effect on women's migration. In addition, the increase in women's participation rates can be a deterrent for women’s international migration. Considering the low rate of women’s participation, which is one of the lowest rates in the Middle East region, and which is a sign of structural problems in the labor market, it is a warning for macroeconomic policymakers that due to the increasing literacy level of women and their self-confidence, and in order to preserve this human capital, examining the situation of the women's labor market and solving its challenges should be prioritized. The ratio of the economic growth of the destination countries of women's migration to the economic growth of Iran, as well as the ratio of the per capita income of the destination countries to Iran, has a positive and significant effect on the migration of Iranian women. These ratios show the welfare difference between the destination countries and Iran, which acts as an attractor not only for women's migration but also for men's migration. Therefore, it is expected that with the appropriate policies in the economy and society and the improvement of economic and welfare conditions, we will not witness the departure of human resources and the wastage of human capital.

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8439_418fef42ce3e255e1d44b32ec5869c59.pdf

University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 27 The effect of banking financial technology on the financial stability of the banking industry in Iran The effect of banking financial technology on the financial stability of the banking industry in Iran 123 150 8441 10.22111/sedj.2024.48471.1463 FA Arezou Karami Master student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. Hadi Esmaeilpour Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran Journal Article 2024 04 16 Introduction The advancement of financial technology has revolutionized the banking industry globally, presenting both opportunities and challenges for financial institutions. This swift transition towards digital finance has reshaped the traditional banking model in Iran, triggering a fundamental shift in how financial services are delivered and consumed. Against this backdrop, the primary aim of this study is to assess the impact of banking financial technology on the stability of Iran's banking industry. As financial institutions in Iran navigate the complexities of integrating digital solutions into their operations, understanding the implications of this transformation on banking stability becomes paramount. Method This study employs a panel data analysis approach spanning a timeframe from the years 2007 to 2022. By leveraging empirical techniques and statistical modeling, the research seeks to uncover crucial insights into how the adoption of financial technology influences the overall stability of the banking industry in Iran. Results : The results reveals a nuanced relationship between financial technology adoption and the stability of Iran's banking industry. A noteworthy finding from the research is the identification of a U-shaped relationship, suggesting a complex trajectory in which financial technology impacts banking stability. Initially, the introduction of financial technology into banking operations may contribute to a temporary decrease in stability as institutions adjust to the disruptive nature of digital innovations. However, as financial technology becomes more deeply ingrained in the fabric of the banking sector, the research indicates a reversal in this trend, leading to an eventual increase in banking stability. This U-shaped relationship underscores the transformative potential of financial technology in reshaping the stability dynamics of the banking industry in Iran over time. It highlights the importance of recognizing the temporary destabilizing effects of technological disruptions while acknowledging the long-term benefits that can be derived from the strategic integration of digital solutions. Conclusion: The findings of this study underscore the critical role that robust technical infrastructure, effective regulatory oversight, and strategic policy frameworks play in ensuring the stability of Iran's banking industry amidst the rising tide of financial technology adoption. As banks navigate the evolving landscape of digital finance, it becomes imperative to implement tailored strategies that support the seamless integration of technology while safeguarding the stability and resilience of the financial system. By proactively addressing the challenges posed by the digital transformation of banking services, Iranian financial institutions can leverage the power of financial technology to drive innovation, enhance efficiency, and ultimately strengthen banking stability in the long run. Through a coordinated approach that focuses on enhancing cybersecurity measures, fostering regulatory compliance, and promoting innovation, the banking industry in Iran can harness the potential of financial technology as a catalyst for sustainable growth and resilience in an increasingly digital era. Introduction The advancement of financial technology has revolutionized the banking industry globally, presenting both opportunities and challenges for financial institutions. This swift transition towards digital finance has reshaped the traditional banking model in Iran, triggering a fundamental shift in how financial services are delivered and consumed. Against this backdrop, the primary aim of this study is to assess the impact of banking financial technology on the stability of Iran's banking industry. As financial institutions in Iran navigate the complexities of integrating digital solutions into their operations, understanding the implications of this transformation on banking stability becomes paramount. Method This study employs a panel data analysis approach spanning a timeframe from the years 2007 to 2022. By leveraging empirical techniques and statistical modeling, the research seeks to uncover crucial insights into how the adoption of financial technology influences the overall stability of the banking industry in Iran. Results : The results reveals a nuanced relationship between financial technology adoption and the stability of Iran's banking industry. A noteworthy finding from the research is the identification of a U-shaped relationship, suggesting a complex trajectory in which financial technology impacts banking stability. Initially, the introduction of financial technology into banking operations may contribute to a temporary decrease in stability as institutions adjust to the disruptive nature of digital innovations. However, as financial technology becomes more deeply ingrained in the fabric of the banking sector, the research indicates a reversal in this trend, leading to an eventual increase in banking stability. This U-shaped relationship underscores the transformative potential of financial technology in reshaping the stability dynamics of the banking industry in Iran over time. It highlights the importance of recognizing the temporary destabilizing effects of technological disruptions while acknowledging the long-term benefits that can be derived from the strategic integration of digital solutions. Conclusion: The findings of this study underscore the critical role that robust technical infrastructure, effective regulatory oversight, and strategic policy frameworks play in ensuring the stability of Iran's banking industry amidst the rising tide of financial technology adoption. As banks navigate the evolving landscape of digital finance, it becomes imperative to implement tailored strategies that support the seamless integration of technology while safeguarding the stability and resilience of the financial system. By proactively addressing the challenges posed by the digital transformation of banking services, Iranian financial institutions can leverage the power of financial technology to drive innovation, enhance efficiency, and ultimately strengthen banking stability in the long run. Through a coordinated approach that focuses on enhancing cybersecurity measures, fostering regulatory compliance, and promoting innovation, the banking industry in Iran can harness the potential of financial technology as a catalyst for sustainable growth and resilience in an increasingly digital era.

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8441_31e3ed1860463e3d448c6b1e08afb1e7.pdf

University of Sistan and Baluchestan Stable Economy Journal 2821-1049 5 2 2024 06 27 Investigation of the relationship between macro-economic variables and tax evasion using nonlinear approaches Investigation of the relationship between macro-economic variables and tax evasion using nonlinear approaches 151 181 8367 10.22111/sedj.2024.47262.1415 FA Masoumeh Motallebi Ph.D. in economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Lorestan, Khoramabad, Iran. Mohammad Alizadeh Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran Journal Article 2023 11 21 The main purpose of present study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tax evasion using nonlinear approaches. . First of all, it was used Markov Switching Vector Autoregression method, statistics and information from 1969 to 2019 to find Kuznets’s hypothesis and nonlinear relationship between macro-economic variables and tax evasion, annually. Then, after confirming the existence of a nonlinear relationship, the Threshold Vector Autoregression was also used for further investigation. According to the results of the markov-switching, the existence of the Kuznets's law between per capita GDP and tax evasion is confirmed. Therefore, in order to reduce tax evasion, it is necessary to reduce the share of oil in GDP and increase the share of productivity in production. For variables of direct burden tax, public education expenditure, Government expenditure omitting education expenditure, Gini coefficient and currency outside the bank, Kuznets law is rejected. However, the existence of a nonlinear relationship is confirmed. Also, tax evasion, GDP per capita, direct tax burden and currency outside the bank was used for Threshold Vector Autoregression model. Tax evasion was selected as threshold variable and The threshold value of the tax evasion was specified 21906/1 Milliard Rials.The results of the Threshold Vector Autoregression model show that the impulses of per capita GDP and currency outside the bank have the greatest effect on increasing tax evasion. The results of the Threshold Vector Autoregression model show that the impulses of per capita GDP and currency outside the bank have the greatest effect on increasing tax evasion. The main purpose of present study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tax evasion using nonlinear approaches. . First of all, it was used Markov Switching Vector Autoregression method, statistics and information from 1969 to 2019 to find Kuznets’s hypothesis and nonlinear relationship between macro-economic variables and tax evasion, annually. Then, after confirming the existence of a nonlinear relationship, the Threshold Vector Autoregression was also used for further investigation. According to the results of the markov-switching, the existence of the Kuznets's law between per capita GDP and tax evasion is confirmed. Therefore, in order to reduce tax evasion, it is necessary to reduce the share of oil in GDP and increase the share of productivity in production. For variables of direct burden tax, public education expenditure, Government expenditure omitting education expenditure, Gini coefficient and currency outside the bank, Kuznets law is rejected. However, the existence of a nonlinear relationship is confirmed. Also, tax evasion, GDP per capita, direct tax burden and currency outside the bank was used for Threshold Vector Autoregression model. Tax evasion was selected as threshold variable and The threshold value of the tax evasion was specified 21906/1 Milliard Rials.The results of the Threshold Vector Autoregression model show that the impulses of per capita GDP and currency outside the bank have the greatest effect on increasing tax evasion. The results of the Threshold Vector Autoregression model show that the impulses of per capita GDP and currency outside the bank have the greatest effect on increasing tax evasion.

https://sedj.usb.ac.ir/article_8367_35faa891300991233d120e32c400ff7b.pdf