Covid-19, oil prices and policy uncertainty in Iran

Document Type : Case Study

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of the Department of Economics; Faculty of Economics-Accounting and Management; Payam Noor University in the center of Shahrekord

2 MSc, Department of Economics University of Research Sciences, Khuzestan, Iran.

3 Master of Economic Development and Planning, Ahvaz Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

Abstract

The rapid spread of the Covid 19 pandemic has caused shocks in the economies of all countries. This shock has caused a recession in most economic activities. Of course, the depth of the new recession will depend on the policy response to the Corona virus crisis.. Therefore, in this study, we have tried to investigate the effect of corona virus (COVID-19) and oil prices on policy uncertainty in Iran using daily data in the period from February 19, 2020 to November 20, 2020. The results of the nonlinear ARDL model show that the new cases of COVID-19 and the new deaths reported in Iran are positively and significantly related to the uncertainty of Iranian policy in the long run. Also, the price of oil as a positive and negative shock has an asymmetric relationship with policy uncertainty in the long run.

Keywords: Covid 19; Oil prices; Policy uncertainty; short term; long time

Keywords


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