Investigating The Gap Between Optimum and Actual Growth Rate Quantity of Money in Iran Economy

Document Type : RESEARCH PAPER

Authors

1 Master of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

3 Master of Economics, University of Zahedan

Abstract

The growth rate of money in the economic literature is a key issue, the optimal rate of which is determined in an economy with certain parameters of the time preference rate, the real interest rate, and consumption smoothing rate. The main purpose of this study is to calculate the growth rate of money and compare it with the optimal growth rate of money in the Iranian economy. Also, in the case of non-observance of the optimal rule of money, the effective components of the difference between optimum and actual growth rate quantity of money investigated. In this paper, the monetary gap of Iran's economy is obtained using Sidarsky's utility function model in the period 1959 to 2020 using the calibration approach in three different scenarios. Then, to investigate the effective factors on the Iranian economic gap, the ordinary least squares method was used during the period 1973-2020. The results of the calibration method show that, in every three scenarios, liquidity gaps are more than monetary gaps, and monetary gaps almost have the same process. The results obtained from ordinary least squares method show that the growth rate of real monetary base components per capita in terms of resources including net government debt to the central bank; net foreign reserves of the central bank and net debt of banks to the central bank, have increased the gaps in three scenarios.

Keywords


 
 
Anvari, Ibrahim, Zarnejad, Mansour and Enayatullah Fakhraei, (2011). "Determining the Optimal Monetary Rule in a General Stochastic Dynamic Equilibrium Model Using Control Theory", Quantitative Economics Quarterly (Former Economic Studies), Volume 8, Number 3, Fall 2011, pp. 129-158 (in Persian).
Bakhshi Dastjerdi, R. (2004); "The Examination of Effects & Origins of Interest Rate with due attention to Samuelson Biological Interest theory in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG) ", Ph.D. Dissertation, Esfahan University.
Babavi, Sahar, (2016), "Study of the continuous monetary recession in the Iranian economy with emphasis on electronic money", Master Thesis, Allameh Tabatabai University (in Persian).
Correia, Isabel and Pedro Teles. (1995), "Money as an Intermediate Good and the Welfare Cost of the Inflation Tax", mimeo Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon. April 1995.
Chari, V.V., Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick Kehoe. (1996), "Optimality of the Friedman Rule in Economies with Distorting Taxes", Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, June 1996, p.203-33.
Dalali Esfahani, Rahim, Vaez Barzani, Mohammad and Mohammad Saeed Ghiyasvand, (2007), "Application of the theory of the optimal amount of money in Iran", Journal of Economic Research, Volume 42, Number 4, Summer 2007, pp. 37-59(in Persian).
Dalali Esfahani, Rahim, Bakhshi Dastjerdi, Rasoul and Jafar Hosseini, (2008), "Theoretical and Experimental Study of Time Preference Rate Case Study: Iranian Economy (1351-1383)", Journal of Knowledge and Development, Year 15, Issue 25, Winter 2008 , Pp. 137-167 (in Persian).
Dalali Esfahani, Rahim, Samadi, Saeed, Mojahedi Mokher, Mohammad Mehdi, Jabbari Kohanshahri, Amir and Reza Samadi Boroujeni (2012), "Specifying an Inflation Model for the Iranian Economy Using Microeconomic Fundamentals", Economic Modeling Research, Volume 2, Number 7 , Pp. 127-151(in Persian).   
Edmond, Chris (2002), "Self-Insurance, Social Insurance, and the Optimum Quantity of Money", American Economic Review, 92(2), 141-147.
Friedman, M. (1969). "The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other",Essays. Aldine Publishing Company.
Faig, Miquel. (1988), "Characterization of the Optimal Tax on Money When It Functions as a Medium of Exchange". Journal of Monetary Economics. 22(1), 137-48.
Hoppe, Hans-Hermann, Guido Hiflsmann, and Walter Block. (1998). "Against Fiduciary.
Komijani, Akbar and Abbas Memarnejad, (2004), "The Importance of Manpower Quality and R&D (Research and Development) in Iran's Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Business Research, No. 2, Summer 2, pp. 1-4 (in Persian).
Kimbrough, Kent P (1986), "The Optimum Quantity of Money Rule in the Theory of Public Finance". Journal of Monetary Economics. 18(3), November 1986: 277-84.
Lucas, Robert, E., Jr. and Nancy L. Stokey. (1983), "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy without Capital". Journal of Monetary Economics. 12(1), July 1983: 55-93.
Linghui Han and Il Houng Lee, (2012), "Optimal Liquidity and Economic Stability", IMF Working Paper, 12-133
Mulligan, C. Sala-I-Martin, X. (1997). "The Optimum Quantity of Money: Theory and Evidence", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,Summer, pp.687-715.
Media". Quarterly Journal oF Austrian Economics 1 (1): 19-50
McCulloch, J. H. (2018), "The Optimum Quantity of Money and the Zero Lower Bound", The Cato Journal, 38(2), 429-446.
Mojahedi Mokher, Mohammad Mehdi, Khorsandi, Morteza and Sahar Babavi (2016), "Study and analysis of the continuous monetary recession in the Iranian economy in the Iranian economy with emphasis on electronic money", Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, Volume 25, Number 82, 331-366(in Persian). 
Mojahedi Mokher, Mohammad Mehdi, Khorsandi, Morteza and Mohammad Esmaeil Tavassoli (2015), "Empirical Analysis of Time Incompatibility in Iran Partial Reserve Banking", Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, Volume 26, Number 86, pp. 169-202(in Persian).
Ramsey F.P.(1928). "The mathematical Theory Of Saving", Economic Journal. 28(152). Pp 543-559
Rajabi, Mostafa, Ranjbar, Homayoun and Foujan Tadayon, (2009), "Application of Optimal Control Theory in Determining the Optimal Path of Iran's Liquidity Volume", Quarterly Journal of Economic Sciences, Volume 3, Number 9, pp. 67-82 (in Persian).
Romer, David, (2017), Advanced Macroeconomics, translated by Mansour Khalili Iraqi, Noor Alam Publications (in Persian).
Ramsey, Frank, (1927). "A Contribution to the theory of Taxation". Economic Journal. 37, March1927:47-61.
Sidrauski, M. Foley, D.K and Shell, K, (1969). "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Economic Growth", Journal of Political Economy, pp.699-718.
Samati, Morteza, Sameti, Majid and Gholamhossein Jafari, (2005), "Government Financial Imbalances and Inflation Rate in Iran", Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, Year 7, Issue 24, Fall 2005, pp. 116-95(in Persian).
Shakeri, Abbas, (2016), Introduction to Iran's economy. Tehran: Rafi Publications(in Persian).
Shakeri, Abbas, (2008), Changes in Liquidity Growth in the Iranian Economy (Trend and Causes). Office of Economic Studies, Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (in Persian).
Shakeri, Abbas, (2013), Macroeconomics of Theories and Policies, Volume II, Tehran: Rafi Publications(in Persian).
Taghavi, Mehdi, Safarzadeh, Esmaeil, (2010), "The Optimal Rate of Liquidity Growth in the Iranian Economy in the Framework of New Keynesian Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Patterns (DSGE)", Economic Modeling Quarterly, Third Year, Issue 3, "Successive 9", Fall 2009 (in Persian).
Taub, Bart. (1989). "the optimum quantity of money in a Stochastic Econimy", International Economic Review, vol30, no2, pp 255- 273.
Woodford, Michael.(1990), "The Optimum Quantity of Money". in Benjamin M. Friedman and Frank H.Hahn, eds. Handbook of Monetary Economics. Volume 2. New York: Elsevier Science, 1067-1152.
Watanabe, T. (2020). The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020.‏
Wen Ya Chang and Ching chong La, (2000), "Anticipatied Inflation in Monetary Economy with Endogenous Growth", Economica.