مدل‌سازی رشد اقتصادی با تأکید بر اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارندگی با استفاده از رویکرد هیبریدی میانگین‌گیری بیزین و رگرسیون اسپلاین

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، تبریز، ایران

3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، تبریز، ایران

10.22111/sedj.2026.55430.1705

چکیده

رابطه میان تغییرات اقلیمی و رشد اقتصادی، به‌ویژه از مسیر متغیرهای دما و بارش، یکی از موضوعات مهم در اقتصاد رشد و اقتصاد محیط‌زیست است. شواهد تجربی نشان می‌دهد که اثر این متغیرها بر عملکرد اقتصادی غالباً خطی و یکنواخت نیست و استفاده از مدل‌های سنتی خطی می‌تواند به کاهش دقت برآورد و از دست رفتن بخشی از اطلاعات منجر شود. بر این اساس، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، مدل‌سازی رشد اقتصادی با تأکید بر نقش متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارندگی، با استفاده از رویکرد ترکیبی میانگین‌گیری بیزین و رگرسیون اسپلاین پانلی است. این پژوهش از نوع اکتشافی بوده و ۵۷ کشور عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی را طی دوره زمانی ۱۹۸۵ تا ۲۰۲۳ بررسی می‌کند. در مرحله نخست، کاراترین روش مدل‌سازی از میان رویکردهای BMA، TVP-DMA، TVP-DMS و WALS انتخاب شد که نتایج پیش‌بینی درون‌نمونه‌ای، برتری روش میانگین‌گیری بیزین را تأیید کرد. بر اساس این روش، ۲۰ متغیر غیرشکننده مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی شناسایی شدند که باز بودن اقتصاد مهم‌ترین آن‌ها بود. نتایج نشان داد متغیرهای اقلیمی بارش و تغییر دما، اگرچه در اولویت‌های پایین‌تر قرار دارند، اما اثری منفی و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی دارند. در مرحله دوم، با استفاده از رگرسیون اسپلاین پانلی سه‌گره‌ای، تغییر شدت اثرگذاری متغیرها در رژیم‌های مختلف بررسی شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد برخلاف بسیاری از متغیرهای اقتصادی که الگوی U معکوس دارند، اثر منفی بارش و دما بر رشد اقتصادی در گره‌های متوالی تشدید می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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