ارزیابی اثر سیاست‌های بهره‌وری و قیمتی بر امنیت آب، انرژی و غذا در ایران: رویکرد پیوندی مبتنی بر مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه پذیر

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد توسعه دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.

2 استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه نتبریز

چکیده

امنیت آب، انرژی و غذا از چالش‌های مهم اقتصاد ایران هستند و مدیریت این سه مسئله حیاتی برای دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، نیازمند رویکردی سیستمی و جامع است. در این پژوهش، موضوع امنیت با «رویکرد پیوندی» بررسی شده است؛ رویکردی که در آن تأثیرات این سه بخش به شدت مرتبط فرض شده، به‌طوری‌که وضعیت هر بخش، سایر بخش‌ها را متأثر می‌کند و نیازمند مدیریت یکپارچه و شناخت دقیق هم‌افزایی‌ها و بده‌بستان‌هاست.این مطالعه با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر و ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی ایران ، تأثیر سیاست‌های بهبود بهره‌وری و شوک‌های قیمتی را بر امنیت آب، انرژی و غذا و رابطه پیوندی آن‌ها ارزیابی کرده است.نتایج شبیه‌سازی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های بهبود بهره‌وری، به‌طور کلی سبب افزایش رفاه عمومی و ارتقای امنیت در هر سه بخش می‌شوند. این سیاست‌ها در صورت اجرای ترکیبی و با اولویت‌بندی درست، به حداکثر کارایی می‌رسند. بهبود بهره‌وری انرژی نسبت به آب و غذا تأثیر قوی‌تری داشته و ترکیب سیاست‌های انرژی و غذا بالاترین اثر مثبت را به همراه دارد.
در مقابل، نتایج حاکی از آن است که ابزارهای قیمتی (مانند حذف یارانه‌ها)، برخلاف سیاست‌های بهره‌وری، به‌طور کلی رفاه را کاهش داده و اثرات جانبی گسترده‌ای بر امنیت این متغیرها دارند. افزایش قیمت غذا بیشترین آسیب را به امنیت غذایی زده و افزایش قیمت انرژی، شوک سیستمی به کل پیوند وارد می‌کند؛ درحالی‌که افزایش قیمت آب تأثیر قابل‌توجهی بر کلیت پیوندها ندارد. در نهایت، ترکیب سیاست‌های قیمتی با سیاست‌های بهره‌وری می‌تواند بده‌بستان‌های منفی را به حداقل رسانده و هم‌افزایی مثبتی ایجاد کند

کلیدواژه‌ها

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