خشونت سیاسی و پیامدهای اقتصادی آن: شواهدی از کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

نااطمینانی ناشی از عوامل مختلف اقتصادی و غیراقتصادی موجب تاثیر منفی بر عملکرد اقتصاد کلان می‌شود. بی-ثباتی اقتصاد کلان، پیش‌بینی‌پذیری وضعیت کلان اقتصادی را کاهش می‌دهد و منجر به تخصیص نادرست منابع، کاهش سرمایه-گذاری و رشد اقتصادی می‌شود. یکی از مهم‌ترین عواملی که بر ثبات اقتصادی تاثیر می‌گذارد، خشونت سیاسی است. خشونت سیاسی استفاده عمدی از قدرت برای دستیابی به اهداف سیاسی است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر اقتصادی خشونت سیاسی در 20 کشور منتخب خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا طی دوره‌ی 2010 تا 2020 با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری پانل است. متغیر خشونت سیاسی مجموع خشونت بین‌دولتی، جنگ بین‌دولتی، خشونت داخلی، جنگ داخلی، خشونت قومی و جنگ قومی می‌باشد. شاخص بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد کلان با استفاده از نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، نرخ ارز واقعی و رابطه مبادله محاسبه شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که خشونت سیاسی تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد کلان در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا دارد. خشونت سیاسی، هزینه‌ها را به سمت استفاده غیرتوسعه‌ای هدایت می‌کند که منجر به کاهش بهره‌وری و فرصت‌های شغلی می‌شود. همچنین، برای تامین مخارج جنگ باید از منابع داخلی شامل چاپ اسکناس‌های جدید، افزایش مالیات و استقراض داخلی و منابع خارجی شامل استقراض از منابع بین‌المللی استفاده ‌شود. از این رو، خشونت سیاسی موجب افزایش تورم، بیکاری و بدهی می‌شود که نشان‌دهنده فضای نامطلوب اقتصاد کلان می‌باشد. علاوه‌براین، مخارج دولت، توسعه مالی، عرضه پول و کیفیت نهادی تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار و جهانی‌شدن و دموکراسی تاثیر منفی و معنی‌دار بر بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد کلان دارند.

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