بررسی اثر شوک ماندگار مالیات بر سود سپرده‌های بانکی در اقتصاد ایران: الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای توأم با قطعیت

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مالیات‌ها به عنوان منبعی باثبات و پایدار در تأمین مالی عمومی دولت‌ها محسوب می‌شوند و سیاستگذاران همواره به دنبال آن هستند که با وضع قوانین مالیاتی بهینه از این ابزار مالی در راستای نیل به اهداف اقتصادی حداکثر بهره را ببرند. در قوانین مالیاتی ایران معافیت‌ها و مشوق‌هایی در پایه‌های مختلف مالیاتی در نظر گرفته شده است. یکی از معافیت‌های اعطایی در نظام مالیاتی ایران، معافیت سود متعلق به سپرده‌های مختلف نزد بانک‌های ایرانی است که وضع مالیات بر سود سپرده‌های بانکی به عنوان یک پایه مالیاتی جدید و در نتیجه ایجاد منابع مالی جدید، می‌تواند نقش مهمی در پیشبرد اهداف اقتصادی کشور داشته باشد. در این مقاله به بررسی آثار سیاست مالیات بر سود سپرده‌های بانکی به صورت وضع دائمی مالیات بر سود سپرده بانکی در چارچوب الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای توأم با قطعیت پرداخته می‌شود. نتایج حاصل شده بیانگر این است که با وضع دائمی مالیات بر سود سپرده‌های بانکی، اگر عوامل اقتصادی زودتر از اجرای سیاست مالیات بر سود سپرده بانکی مطلع شوند، افزایش در مصرف کل به مدت طولانی‌تری ادامه خواهد داشت و افزایش در تولید کل، تسهیلات بانکی پرداختی به بنگاه‌ها، سرمایه‌گذاری و موجودی سرمایه نیز به میزان بیشتری خواهد بود و این افزایش به مدت طولانی‌تری ادامه خواهد داشت. بنابراین، توصیه می‌شود در صورتی که سیاستگذاران اقتصادی قصد اجرای سیاست مالیات بر سود سپرده بانکی را دارند، به منظور افزایش سطح تولید و سرمایه‌گذاری به میزان بیشتر و طولانی‌تر، اجرای این سیاست هر چه زودتر به عوامل اقتصادی اعلام گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


Auerbach, A. J. (1981). Evaluating the Taxation of Risky Assets. (No. w0806). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Azizkhani, F., & Mohamadi, T. (2022). The Effects of Deregulation in Goods and Labor Market on Iranian Economic Growth and Unemployment: A Dynamic Deterministic Equilibrium Model. Program and Budget Research, 3(1), 121-146 (In Persian).
Bahrami, J., & Rafei, M. (2014). Sound Fiscal Reactions to Stochastic Shocks: A DSGE Approach. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 19(58), 1-37 (In Persian).
Bayat, M., Afshari, Z., & Tavakolian, H. (2016). Monetary Policy and Stock Price Index (on the basis of the wealth effect of the stock market boom) in a DSGE Framework. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 5(20), 33-61 (In Persian).
Bayat, M., Afshari, Z., & Tavakolian, H. (2016). Monetary Policy and Stock Price Index in DSGE Models Framework. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 24(78), 171-206 (In Persian).
Bhattarai, K. & Trzeciakiewicz, D. (2017). Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis. Economic Modelling, 61(C), 321-338.
Boscá, J.E., Doménech, R., Ferri, J., & J., Rubio-Ramirez (2019). Macroeconomic effects of taxes on banking. Studies on the Spanish Economy, eee2019-09, FEDEA.
 Caminal, R. (2002). Taxation of banks: A theoretical framework. UFAE and IAE Working Papers 525.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
Central bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Economic time series database: https://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx
Chiorazzo, V., & Milani, C. (2011). The impact of taxation on bank profits Evidence from EU banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35, 3202–3212.
Dargahi, H., Hadian, M. (2016). Evaluation of Fiscal and Monetary Shocks with Emphasis on the Interactions of Banking System Balance Sheet and the Real Sector of Iran's Economy: A DSGE Approach. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 3(1), 1-28 (In Persian).
Davoodi, P., Zarepour, Z. (2007). The Role of Definition of Money in the Stability of the Iranian Demand for Money. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 8(29), 47-74 (In Persian).
Emadi, S. (2021). Imposition of tax on interest on long-term deposits and its impact on inflation and economic growth in the Iranian economy, Master Thesis, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran (In Persian).
Enami, A. (2019). Investigating the Effects of Banking Resources Shock on Consumption and Investment in IRAN, by DSGE Approach, Ph.D. Thesis, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad (In Persian).
Gerali, A., Stefano, N., Sessa. L. & F., Signoretti, (2010). Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(1), 107-141.
Gholami, A., & Abasinejad, H. (2018). Modeling the Value Added Tax on Bank Services in the Framework of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Iran. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 53(3), 619-645 (In Persian).
Gholami, A., & Abbasinejad, H. (2018). Implementation of value added tax on bank sector in explaining Iran economic fluctuations using the approach of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 7(25), 85-110 (In Persian).
Gholami, A., Salimi, E., & Adabi Airouzjaee, B. (2022). Investigating the Effects of Stock Earnings and Bank Deposits Tax Shocks in the Context of Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. The Journal of Economic Policy, 14(27), 215-245 (In Persian).
Haghighat, J., Habibzadeh, A., & N., Moharam Joudi (2017). Fiscal Policy of Iran`s Economy in a DSGE Model (Focusing on Non- Ricardian Households). Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 52(3), 551-580 (In Persian).
Hooshmandi, H., Sameti, M., & Moayedfar, R. (2014). Comparison of Growth Effects of Taxation Reforms in Iran: A CGE-DCGE Analysis. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 11(2), 87-113 (In Persian).
Hosseinpour, F., Tabaeh Izady, A., & J., Khodaparast shirazi (2017). Investigation the independency of fiscal policies’ main instruments (Taxes and government expenditures) from oil revenues fluctuations in oil exporter countries. Journal of Tax Research (J Tax Res.), 25(35), 59-86 (In Persian).
Iranian National Tax Administration (2015). Investigating the challenges and feasibility of imposing a tax on interest on bank deposits. Tehran: Khodadadkashi, F. (In Persian).
Jalali-naini, A., Tavakolian, H., Zamanzadeh, H., & P. Davoudi, (2019). Endogenous Firm Entry and Exit in a DSGE Model for Iran Economy. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 8(29), 1-39 (In Persian).
Jani, S., Khodadadkashi F., & F. Doniyabin (2018). Determining the favorable economic conditions for imposing a tax on interest on bank deposits and their comparative analysis of the Iranian economy. Journal of Tax Research, 50(38), 31-50 (In Persian).
Khalilzadeh, J., Heidari, H. & S. Bashiri (2018). The role of oil revenues and bank credits with an emphasis on the governance of monetary policies in Iran's production sector with the approach of a DSGE model. Quarterly Iranian Jounal of Applied Economics, 9(30), 82-67 (In Persian).
Khodadadkashi, F., Jani, S. (2015). Feasibility Study of Introducing Iranian Bank Deposit Interest Tax with Emphasis on Allocative Efficiency. Journal of Tax Research, 23(26), 9-26 (In Persian).
Khodaverdi Zadeh S, & Dashtbani Y. (2019).  An Examination of Taxation Effect on Interest Rate of Bank Deposits on Gross Domestic Product: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. Journal of Tax Research, 27(43), 89-118 (In Persian).
King, M.A. (1980). Saving and taxation”. NBER Working Paper No.w0428, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=226919
Kotera, G. & Sakai, S. (2018). Policy Simulation of Government Expenditure and Taxation Based on the DSGE Model. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, Public Policy Review, 14(4), 613-640.
Lotfalipour, M., Karimzadeh, M., Enami, A. (2018). Investigating the Effects of Banking Resources Shock on Consumption and Investment in IRAN, by DSGE Approach. Journal of Econometric Modelling, 3(3), 113-146 (In Persian).
Minooei Fard, B. (2015). Investigating the effect of interest rate on the volume of bank investment deposits and its impact from the tax on interest on deposits, Master Thesis, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran (In Persian).
Mirrlees, J.A. (1971). An exploration in the theory of optimum income taxation. The Review of Economic Studies, 38(2), 175-208.
Nejadaghaeianvash, P., Arabmazar, A., Izadkhasti, H., & Dejpasand, F. (2022). The Impact of Taxing the Interest on Savings on the Economic Variables in Iran: A DSGE Approach. The Journal of Economic Policy, 14(27), 371-414 (In Persian).
Pajooyan, J, & Darvishi, B. (2010). The Structural Reforms in Iran’s Tax System. Journal of Tax Research, 18(8), 9-48 (In Persian).
Parliament Research's Center (2017). Analysis of economic dimensions of tax on interest rate of bank deposits. Tehran (In Persian).  
Plan & Budget Organization (2016). A comparative comparison of Iran's economic performance with the countries of the perspective goals in the period (2005-2015) and the requirements for its improvement in the remaining years. Tehran: Farhadikia, A. & Ezoji, A. (In Persian).
Rafei, M. (2015). Investigating the effect of shocks on Iran's economy from the path of financial policies (stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach, Ph.D. Thesis, Allameh Tabataba`i University, Tehran (In Persian).
Ramsey, F.P. (1927). A contribution to the theory of taxation. The Economic Journal, 37(145), 47-61.
Ramsey, F.P. (1928), A mathematical theory of saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
Sandmo, Agnar (1985). The effect of taxation on savings and risk taking, Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, 265-311, Elsevier.
Shahhoseini, S., & Bahrami, J. (2016). Assessment of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary Transmission Channel in Iran; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach. Economics Research, 16(60), 1-49 (In Persian).
Statistical Center of Iran: https://www.amar.org.ir/english
Tavakolian, H., & Sarem, M. (2019). DSGE Models in Dynare (Modeling, Solution and Estimation for Iran), Tehran, Monetary and Banking Research Institute (In Persian).
Tavakolian, H., Mohammadi, T., & E. Siami Araghi (2020). Determining the fiscal Rule of the Budget Balance for the Iran Economy, Stochastic Dynamic General Balance Approach (DSGE). Quarterly journal of economic research and policies (qjerp