تاثیر همه‌گیری کووید-۱۹ بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر در کشورهای OECD

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد پژوهشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران ایران

2 گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

انرژی به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل تولید نقش تعیین‏کننده‌ای در حیات اقتصادی و توسعه تمدن جوامع دارد. به موازات رشد جمعیت، توسعه صنعتی و پیشرفت فناوری، نیاز بشر به منابع انرژی به طور فزاینده شدت می‌یابد. مصرف انرژی و در کنار آن تولید انرژی از معیارهای مهم سنجش میزان پیشرفت اقتصادی کشورها است. شوک حاصل از شیوع بیماری کووید-۱۹ در جهان، اثرات مستقیمی بر زندگی افراد و فعالیت شرکت‌های تولیدی و صنعتی و فعالیت‌های تجاری داشته است. اثرات این بیماری بر بخش انرژی چشم‌گیر است. شوک حاصل، آنقدر عمیق و تاثیرگذار است که با تحت تاثیر قرار دادن فعالیت‌‌های تولیدی و تقاضا، مصرف انرژی را تغییر می‌دهد. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تاثیر همه‌گیری کووید-۱۹ بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر در کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری و توسعه اقتصادی (OECD)، با کمک داده های ماهانه طی دوره ۲۰2۰ -۲۰1۰ است. به‌منظور تخمین مدل از تکنیک داده‌های پانلی به شیوه حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملا اصلاح شده (FMOLS) استفاده می‌شود. نتایج نشان می‌دهد همه‌گیری کووید-۱۹ تاثیر منفی و معنی داری بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر گذاشته است. همچنین نتایج، تاثیر مثبت توسعه مالی، آزادسازی تجاری و رشد اقتصادی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدناپذیر را نشان می‌دهد. در تفکیک کشورهای OECD به دو گروه کم درآمد و پردرآمد، نتایج تخمین ها نشان می دهد که در هر دو گروه، درآمد سرانه اثر مثبت و معنادار بر مصرف انرژی تجدیدناپذیر دارد، در حالی که همه گیری کووید-19 اثر منفی بر مصرف انرژی در دو گروه دارد و تاثیر منفی در گروه کم درآمد قویتر است.

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