پیش‌بینی تمرکززدایی مالی با در نظر گرفتن مصرف انرژی و آثار زیست محیطی: با استفاده از مدل‌های هوشمند ترکیبی با الگوریتم‌های بهینه‌سازی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز . اهواز . ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده ی اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

تمرکززدایی مالی نشان‌دهنده انتقال مسئولیت و اختیارات درآمد و تصمیم‌گیری درباره مخارج از سوی دولت مرکزی به سطوح پایین‌تر است. در سال‌های اخیر با افزایش مصرف انرژی، گرم شدن کره زمین، انتشار کربن و تغییرات آب و هوا، موضوع تمرکززدایی مالی و اثرات زیست محیطی آن مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. چرا که تمرکززدایی مالی تاثیر مهمی در ترویج منابع انرژی پاک، کاهش مصرف انرژی و کاهش انتشار کربن دارد. در مطالعه حاضر از مدل‌های هوشمند ترکیبی برای پیش بینی و تحلیل تمرکززدایی مالی از دو بعد مخارج و درآمد با در نظر گرفتن بر مصرف انرژی و اثرات زیست محیطی آن با ترکیب الگوریتم‌های بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات، ژنتیک و شبکه عصبی استفاده شده است. الگوریتم‌های بهینه‌سازی با کنترل تمام مراحل دقت پیش‌بینی را افزایش می‌دهند. بدین منظور از داده‌های فصلی طی دوره 1400-1375 استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج تحقیق شبکه عصبی پس انتشار ارتجاعی در پیش بینی تمرکززدایی درآمد و شبکه عصبی پس انتشار گرادیان مزدوج مقیاس شده دارای قدرت بالایی در پیش‌بینی تمرکززدایی مخارج در کشور بوده است. همچنین، مقدارآماره R که نشاندهنده نکویی برازش مدل است، برای متغیر تمرکززدایی درآمد نسبت به تمرکززدایی مخارج بیشترین مقدار را داشته و این نشان‌دهنده عملکرد بهتر مدل تمرکززدایی درآمد نسبت به تمرکززدایی مخارج بوده است. نتایج مدل ترکیب بهینه ساز(GPA) و مدل شبیه‌ساز عصبی (GAPSO) در پیش‌بینی تمرکززدایی مخارج و درآمد نشان داد که تمرکززدایی درآمد دارای بهترین عملکرد نسبت به مدل تمرکززدایی مخارج بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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