تحلیل اثر سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی و خصوصی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی 5 دهه

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

رفاه را نمی‌توان از عوامل متعددی از جمله رشد اقتصادی، سرمایه‌گذاری و هزینه‌های دولتی جدا کرد. مطالعات صورت گرفته توسط پژوهشگران پیشین نمایانگر نتایج متناقضی در ارتباط بین سرمایه‌گذاری و رفاه است. در این پژوهش، نخست رفاه اقتصادی ایران با تمرکز بر ابعاد چهارگانه جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، توزیع درآمد و امنیت اقتصادی در دوره زمانی 1350 تا 1140 محاسبه شد که دارای میانگین ۳/۴۱ در دوره زمانی پژوهش است. سپس اثر سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی و خصوصی بر رفاه اقتصادی با رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی مورد بررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. روند حرکتی شاخص ترکیبی رفاه بیانگر آن است که رفاه اقتصادی از سال 1355 تا انتهای جنگ روندی نزولی داشته است و پس از آن و در بلندمدت روندی صعودی همراه با نوسانات متعدد را آغاز کرده است. یافته‌های حاصل از برآورد الگو در بلندمدت حاکی از آن است که سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی و خصوصی بر رفاه اقتصادی اثری مثبت داشته است و از نظر اندازه، میزان تاثیرگذاری سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی بر رفاه به مراتب بیش از سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی است. همچنین مطابق با انتظار درآمد سرانه و رشد اقتصادی بطور مثبت بر رفاه اثرگذارند و تورم اثری منفی بر آن دارد. در مجموع اگر چه سرمایه‌گذاری دولتی نسبت به خصوصی از اثرگذاری بزرگتری بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است؛ ولی اندازه اثرگذاریِ آن بر رفاه کمتر از اثرگذاریِ نامطلوب تورم است. بنابر نتایج پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاستگذار اقتصادی ضمن کنترل و کاهش تورم، جهت تامین مالی سرمایه‌گذاری از روش‌های تورم‌زا اجتناب کند.

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