تاثیر شکنندگی اقتصادی بر شاخص فلاکت

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

2 پسادکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شاخص فلاکت که حاصل جمع نرخ تورم و نرخ بیکاری است، یکی از شاخص‌های کلیدی برای سنجش فشارهای اقتصادی بر خانوارها و ارزیابی کارآمدی سیاست‌های اقتصادی کشورها به شمار می‌رود. در سال‌های اخیر، بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه با پدیده شکنندگی اقتصادی مواجه بوده‌اند؛ وضعیتی که می‌تواند به افزایش آسیب‌پذیری معیشتی و نارضایتی اجتماعی منجر شود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل تأثیر ابعاد شکنندگی اقتصادی بر شاخص فلاکت در کشورهای منتخب با وضعیت هشدار شکنندگی طی دوره 2007-2022 انجام شده است. این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های تابلویی و به‌کارگیری روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) به بررسی اثر متغیرهای رکود اقتصادی و فقر، توسعه نامتوازن، مهاجرت و فرار مغزها و فشار جمعیتی بر شاخص فلاکت پرداخته است. نتایج نشان داد که تمامی مؤلفه‌های شکنندگی اقتصادی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر شاخص فلاکت دارند و فشار جمعیتی نیز نقش تقویت‌کننده‌ای در افزایش این شاخص ایفا می‌کند. یافته‌ها دلالت بر آن دارد که شکنندگی اقتصادی از مسیر افزایش تورم و بیکاری، سطح رفاه اقتصادی را تضعیف و شاخص فلاکت را تشدید می‌کند. بنابراین، کاهش ابعاد شکنندگی از طریق تقویت رشد پایدار، متوازن و جلوگیری از مهاجرت نخبگان، به‌همراه مدیریت جمعیتی، ضرورتی اجتناب‌ناپذیر برای بهبود شاخص فلاکت و ارتقای کیفیت زندگی خانوارها است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

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