تحلیل اقتصادسنجی فضایی انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

2 دانش آموخته مقطع دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی گرایش بین الملل، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مفید، قم، ایران

چکیده

این مطالعه به بررسی عوامل فضایی مؤثر بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن (CO₂) در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه می‌پردازد و بر اهمیت برون‌ریزهای زیست‌محیطی فرامرزی تأکید دارد. این مقاله با بهره‌گیری از روش‌های پیشرفته اقتصادسنجی فضایی، آثار مستقیم و سرریز متغیرهایی همچون تولید نفت سرانه، شدت انرژی و ساختار تولید برق بر انتشار CO₂ در منطقه را شناسایی می‌نماید.
این پژوهش از مدل پانل خطای فضایی با اثرات ثابت با اثرات ثابت کشوری و زمانی برای هشت کشور منتخب خاورمیانه طی دوره 2024- 2000 استفاده می‌کند. متغیرهای توضیحی کلیدی شامل تولید نفت سرانه، مصرف انرژی سرانه، شدت انرژی و ساختار تولید برق (شامل منابع فسیلی، گازی و نفتی) هستند. علاوه بر این، آزمون‌های تشخیصی برای بررسی وجود خودهمبستگی فضایی به ‌کار رفته است.
نتایج نشان می‌دهد که انتشار CO₂ دارای همبستگی فضایی قوی و معناداری است (ضریب خودرگرسیونی فضایی = 805/0)، به‌طوری‌که انتشار ملی به ‌طور قابل توجهی از انتشار کشورهای همسایه تأثیر می‌پذیرد. همچنین، تولید نفت سرانه اثر مثبت و معناداری بر انتشار CO₂ دارد و هزینه‌های زیست‌محیطی وابستگی به منابع را برجسته می‌کند. در مقابل، تولید سرانه نفت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر انتشار CO₂ دارند که بیانگر نقش بهره‌وری انرژی و اصلاح ساختار تولید برق در کاهش آلایندگی است. شدت انرژی مصرفی اولیه و مصرف برق فسیلی تأثیر مثبت دارند ولی از نظر آماری در سطح قابل توجهی قرار ندارند.
این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که انتشار CO₂ در خاورمیانه فراتر از مرزهای ملی است و سیاست‌های یکجانبه برای کاهش آن کافی نیستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

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اقتصاد باثبات
دوره 7، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 22
اردیبهشت 1405
صفحه 141-169

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