بررسی تاثیر توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی بر تقاضای انرژی در اقتصاد ایران،رهیافت علیت نامتقارن

نوع مقاله : پژوهش تجربی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 گروه اقتصاد شهری دانشگاه هنر اصفهان

3 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد ارسنجان، ارسنجان، فارس

چکیده

مطالعۀ پیش رو به بررسی وجود رابطۀ بلندمدت میان تقاضای انرژی و توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی با استفاده از اطلاعات دوره 1349 تا 1396 پرداخته است. در این راستا به‌منظور کاهش تورش برآوردهای انجام‌شده، متغیرهای سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تجارت آزاد و تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص نیز در الگو، در نظر گرفته‌شده است. جهت تخمین رابطۀ بلندمدت مدنظر از رگرسیون حداقل مربعات تعمیم‌یافته، تحت شکست ساختاری و روش هم‌انباشتگی ترکیبی بایر - هانک استفاده‌شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که افزایش تقاضای انرژی ناشی از توسعۀ مالی بسیار ناچیز و تأثیر تجارت، تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص و تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی بر تقاضای انرژی مثبت است. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از آزمون علیّت نامتقارن نشان داد که تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی و تجارت آزاد و تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص، علت گرنجری تقاضای انرژی در بلندمدت هستند. درنهایت، نتایج این تحقیق حاکی از آن است که تأثیر رشد اقتصادی بر مصرف انرژی بسیار بیشتر از تأثیر توسعۀ مالی بر این متغیراست.

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