بررسی اثر غیرخطی توسعه مالی بازار محوربر رشد اقتصادی در ایران: رهیافت مارکوف - سوئیچینگ

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

اقتصاد ایران در دهه اخیر با تورم مداوم و بالا، ریسک‌ های سیاسی، نااطمینانی، عدم شفافیت و تحریم‌های اقتصادی با عدم تعادل در بازارهای مالی روبرو بوده است که رشد اقتصادی را مختل نموده است. از طرف دیگر بررسی‌های اقتصادی نشان می‌دهد که سیستم‌های مالی سالم و کارآمد از جمله بانک ها که سرمایه را به بهره‌وری‌ترین شکل استفاده از آن هدایت می‌کنند، برای رشد اقتصادی مفید هستند. به همین جهت روابط بین توسعه بخش مالی و رشد اقتصادی بحث قابل توجهی را در میان اقتصاددانان توسعه ایجاد کرده است. با این حال اجماع اندکی در مورد اثرگذاری توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی و همچنین تاثیر خطی یا غیرخطی آن وجود دارد. لذا این مطالعه با در نظر گرفتن شاخص‌های بخش بازاری توسعه مالی به دنبال بررسی اثر غیرخطی و نامتقارن توسعه بخش بازاری مالی بر رشد اقتصادی با رهیافت مارکوف – سوییچنیگ بود. دوره زمانی مطالعه 2018-1980هست. به منظور بررسی اثرات نامتقارن توسعه مالی بخش بازاری از شاخص‌های جدید ارائه شده توسط صندوق بین‌المللی پول (IMF) که توسط مطالعه سیرویدزنکا (2016) معرفی شده استفاده گردید. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که شاخص‌های بازاری توسعه مالی تنها در رژیم یک یا به عبارتی رژیم رکورد اثر معنی‌داری بر رشد اقتصادی دارند. بنابراین در شرایط رکودی و پرنوسان رشد اقتصادی، تمرکز سیاست‌های دولتی بر بخش بازاری و سرمایه توسعه مالی به مراتب نقش موثری داشته و می‌تواند از التهاب موجود در روند رشد اقتصادی کاسته و آن را بهبود بخشد.

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