تحلیل اثرات سیاست پولی در اقتصاد ایران با وجود بانکداری سایه، رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دوره دکترا،گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی. دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، خوزستان. ایران

3 گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران .

چکیده

بانکداری سایه از زمان بحران مالی در سال 2007 به عنوان عامل بحران در جهان شناخته شد. این مقاله به طور تجربی رابطه بین بانکداری سایه و اجرای سیاست پولی در ایران را با استفاده از روش تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی تحلیل می‌کند. مطالعه ما نشان می‌دهد که بانکداری سایه در ایران به سرعت در حال رشد است و به دلیل عدم فعالیت در چارچوب مقررات بانک مرکزی می‌تواند از کارآیی سیاست‌های پولی بکاهد. به منظور بررسی نقش بانکداری سایه، اثرات شوک سیاست پولی در دو سناریوی مختلف بررسی شده است. در هر دو حالت سیاست انبساطی پولی و یا سیاست انقباضی پولی، با سناریوی در نظر گرفتن بانکداری سایه در اقتصاد، اثرات اخلالی در متغیرهای رشد و تورم مشاهده گردید، به طوری که با اعمال سیاست پولی انبساطی تغییرات در تولید پس از یک دوره منفی شده و با اعمال سیاست انقباضی پولی نیز با در نظر گرفتن بانکداری سایه، میزان کاهش در تولید و سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها به مقدار کمتری رخ می‌دهد و در واقع از اثرات سیاست انقباضی کاسته شده است. در مدل پس از تشدید سیاست‌های پولی، بانک‌های عادی میزان وام‌های موجود در ترازنامه خود را کاهش می‌دهند در حالی که بانک‌های سایه وام‌دهی را افزایش می‌دهند. این امر اثرات واقعی شوک را کاهش می‌دهد، اما در عین حال بانک‌های سایه واکنش متغیرهای کلیدی به شوک‌های واقعی را تشدید می‌کنند و می‌توانند بخش مالی و کل اقتصاد را بی‌ثبات‌تر کنند و اقتصاد را از مسیر ثبات و توسعه خارج نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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